Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 35.053430 39.537551 44.799064 51.546910 60.156505 71.055025 86.401428
2025-05-18 28.457036 33.804721 40.690067 50.588103 65.208522 87.554782 128.455435
2025-05-25 24.553975 30.296340 38.229779 50.752743 71.870728 111.108377 211.598640
2025-06-01 21.651757 27.461702 35.922263 50.306335 77.508675 138.833007 381.631548
2025-06-08 19.464242 25.212386 33.934100 49.692387 82.669292 173.048222 851.637425
2025-06-15 17.771831 23.409846 32.254570 49.077950 87.654227 217.081092 3688.830646
2025-06-22 16.481892 22.029008 30.990390 48.853272 93.611412 282.165480 NaN
2025-06-29 15.292662 20.655557 29.507322 47.785151 96.929816 352.579252 NaN
2025-07-06 14.830457 20.377736 29.864768 50.672761 114.338947 656.321266 NaN
2025-07-13 13.986617 19.379930 28.767168 50.001179 119.737501 975.698396 NaN
2025-07-20 13.367692 18.696734 28.157980 50.336084 129.746468 1962.101124 NaN
2025-07-27 12.849996 18.135792 27.703334 50.943231 142.153206 7648.178584 NaN
2025-08-03 12.316808 17.514869 27.077939 51.030681 153.285594 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.760646 16.812497 26.213777 50.285762 159.794710 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.345422 16.329396 25.743109 50.557158 173.870467 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.915216 15.788837 25.095867 50.171554 183.874139 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.508192 15.263750 24.429724 49.591106 192.470909 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.134297 14.776308 23.798822 48.995071 200.980828 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.817316 14.374667 23.316507 48.779801 213.841370 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.466708 13.891703 22.616602 47.718899 216.984308 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.395866 13.924415 23.054555 50.602500 277.072866 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.110404 13.535913 22.510315 49.933898 288.811339 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 8.901859 13.282895 22.254524 50.268849 321.162709 NaN NaN